Galaxy Digital says quantum risk to Bitcoin is real, but limited for now

Will Owens, in a report published on March 19, assessed the risk that future quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s cryptography. The analysis finds the threat is plausible, yet current exposure centers on wallets whose public keys are visible on the blockchain.

According to the report, a powerful quantum computer could derive a private key from a matching public key, letting an attacker forge a signature and move coins. Owens identified two exposure points: wallets with public keys already on-chain and wallets that reveal a public key at the time of spending.

The report addresses an ongoing debate over how soon quantum capabilities may emerge and how Bitcoin should prepare. Some observers view practical machines as decades away and expect traditional financial targets to be hit first. Owens called for preparation focused on where funds are vulnerable today and on steps that can be taken ahead of any breakthrough.

He also pushed back on claims that Bitcoin Core contributors are ignoring quantum-focused ideas, referencing proposals such as a soft fork known as BIP 360. The review notes that related work has accelerated since late 2025.

Owens said the review contradicts claims that developers are ignoring the issue and shows extensive work on quantum risks and defenses. He noted the Bitcoin ecosystem now has concrete, maturing proposals that cover the full set of problems. These are not just ideas on paper; leading contributors are actively building, testing, and reviewing them.

Owens reported that active contributors are testing and refining approaches that address a range of potential issues.

He also pointed to governance as a likely challenge when a post-quantum solution is ready, since Bitcoin has no central authority to mandate upgrades. “Bitcoin has no CEO, no board, and no central authority that can mandate a software update,” he wrote. “But the nature of this particular threat – external, technical, and universal in its impact – aligns incentives in a way that past disputes over Bitcoin’s economic direction did not. Every honest participant in the network, from miners to holders to exchanges, has a direct financial interest in the network’s continued security.”

For users, the main exposure arises when public keys are revealed on-chain through past use or at the moment of spending. Addresses that have never disclosed a public key face less risk today than those that have. Owens urged investors to follow standard security practices and monitor developer progress.

Other industry figures have presented interim steps. In November, analyst Willy Woo proposed keeping coins in a SegWit wallet for about seven years to reduce exposure while longer-term defenses are built. Owens did not endorse a specific user strategy in the report.

For investors, Owens summarized the view: “the risk is real but recognized, and the people best positioned to address it are working on it.”