Fidelity: Bitcoin May Have Found a Floor; White House Teases BTC Plan

Fidelity Digital Assets in its Q2 2026 Signals Report on Monday reported improving on-chain metrics for Bitcoin and concluded the market may have found a floor. At the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt told attendees a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement is coming within weeks.

Fidelity highlighted rising unrealized profitability, stronger momentum and increased network activity. The net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric moved into positive territory for the first time since January. The firm reported that Bitcoin dominance has increased as capital concentrated in the most liquid asset.

The report also noted negative futures funding rates that Fidelity attributed to institutional hedging. The firm identified a divergence for ether and Solana in which token prices lag protocol-level usage while on-chain protocol activity held up.

Fidelity outlined a downside timeline consistent with prior four-year cycles that would place a cycle bottom in November 2026 and observed that past drawdowns exceeded 70% from peak levels. The report noted Bitcoin’s February low was about 52% below the October 2025 all-time high. Fidelity noted that ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases create a structural source of demand that was not present in earlier cycles.

At the Las Vegas event, Patrick Witt said the administration has completed legal and operational work to implement the March 2025 executive order that designated roughly 200,000 seized BTC as a permanent reserve asset. Witt added that forthcoming guidance will explain how the reserve could grow beyond seizure-based holdings. Representative Nick Begich of Alaska plans to reintroduce the American Reserves Modernization Act to codify the reserve and direct the government to acquire one million BTC over five years.

Market context at the time showed Bitcoin trading near $76,400 while major tokens fell and oil approached $100 a barrel. Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $263 million in net outflows on Monday, ending a nine-day inflow streak. Public companies continued purchases: Strategy bought 3,273 BTC for about $255 million last week, and Strive Inc. acquired 789 BTC for roughly $61.4 million.

Officials have not released details on the mechanisms the reserve would use to acquire additional coins. The White House indicated the forthcoming guidance will set rules for custody, accounting and operational coordination across federal agencies. Further technical and legal details are expected in the coming weeks.