Ethereum pessimism reaches capitulation zone, Santiment analyst says

Quinlivan made the assessment in a video update and in Santiment’s weekly written summary, pointing to a sharp drop in ETH’s social metrics coming out of the holidays. He described the current backdrop as one where negative crowd mood has historically coincided with base-building rather than extended drawdowns.

The on-chain analytics firm’s framing follows a broader January pattern it has tracked across majors: social chatter started 2026 unusually upbeat before quickly bifurcating – Bitcoin sentiment cooled with ETF outflows and macro jitters, while Ethereum’s own readings sank toward a short-term capitulation band. Today’s pessimism looks “reminiscent” of pre-run conditions.

In parallel with sentiment, spot pricing has been choppy. After an early-January pop, majors eased as U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded roughly $480 million in net outflows midweek and risk assets softened; ETH’s print near $3.1K on Saturday reflects that retracement but leaves the asset up year to date.

Quinlivan has repeatedly cautioned that crowd behavior around inflection points matters as much as headlines. In recent notes he argued markets “tend to rise more steadily” when retail remains cautious and impatient, whereas sudden enthusiasm on short bursts is more consistent with local tops – a pattern Santiment also flagged when comparing ETH’s current readings to last year’s run-up.

Independent write-ups of the same dataset echo the mechanics: Ethereum’s “weighted sentiment” and related social gauges sit near multi-week lows, a zone that previously preceded a medium-term rebound as participation rotated back on improving price action. Those accounts cite the same Santiment video and charts published this week.