ETF Flows, Corporate Buys May Limit Bitcoin Losses

Bitcoin traded near $80,600 in mid-May, about 36% below its all-time high near $126,000. Analyst Pierre Rochard described the current cycle as “materially decoupled” from past bear markets, citing steady demand from U.S. spot ETFs and corporate treasury purchases.

Rochard highlighted that U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated more than $59 billion in net inflows since their launch, including about $4.5 billion since March. He compared prior market drawdowns — roughly 85% in 2013–2015 and near 77% in both 2017–2018 and 2021–2022 — with the smaller decline seen in the current correction.

Rochard pointed to corporate accumulation as another layer of demand. Data show one large holder increased its Bitcoin balance from 640,031 BTC in October 2025 to 818,869 BTC, an addition of roughly 179,000 BTC at an average purchase price near $75,543.

Market analysts noted additional differences in the current backdrop. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe listed factors that set this cycle apart, including fresh Nasdaq highs, an upcoming congressional vote on the CLARITY Act, public discussion about a strategic Bitcoin reserve and the process for selecting a new Federal Reserve chair. He warned that the popular expectation of a prolonged decline and a bottom in October 2026 is widespread among traders.

Onchain and market indicators give mixed readings. A Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator from CryptoQuant generated an “early bull” reading, the first such signal since March 2023. Analyst MorenoDV observed that similar readings in 2019 and early 2023 preceded large rallies but cautioned that several other market metrics show signs of exhaustion, leaving the latest signal without full confirmation.

Retail activity has shown some recovery after a slump in April. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. tracked 30-day changes in transaction volume from wallets holding up to $10,000. The metric fell to -8.2% on April 5, climbed to 6.31% on May 6 and was about 4.38% on May 12 while Bitcoin traded near $80,625. Reported retail transfer volume rose from about $336 million in mid-April to roughly $351 million more recently, remaining below February levels of $365 million to $375 million.

The combination of ETF inflows, corporate treasury purchases and a modest return of retail activity has been cited by analysts as a change in supply-demand dynamics compared with earlier cycles. Market participants say confirmation of a new sustained bull phase would require stronger, broader signals across price momentum and other metrics.