Dollar passes 100; five Bitcoin developments to watch

The US dollar index climbed above 100 to its highest level since May 2025 as traders flagged several factors that could affect Bitcoin, which traded near $64,000 at the start of the week. Market participants identified five developments to monitor: upcoming PCE inflation data, the status of a US‑Iran peace agreement, oil price movements, short‑term selling on exchanges and the activity of large holders.

Traders pointed to the dollar’s gain as a potential headwind for risk assets. One market participant noted the index had risen above the 100 mark while being supported by its daily 200-period moving averages. Other analysts highlighted a broadening wedge pattern in the index and estimated a break above that pattern could push the index toward the mid‑100s.

Bitcoin has traded in the vicinity of $64,000 in recent sessions. A market analyst referenced a historical pattern in which July often moves opposite to June and signaled that a weak June has in past been followed by a recovery in July. The same analyst also identified the 50‑month exponential moving average as a level that could act as resistance if it fails to hold as support.

Inflation data is set to influence market expectations this week. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index for May is due on Thursday. April’s PCE print reached three‑year highs. Market tools show roughly a one‑in‑three probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the end of July. Thursday’s calendar also includes revised first‑quarter GDP figures and initial jobless claims, which could affect expectations for future Fed actions.

The US‑Iran peace agreement and oil prices remain in focus. After the deal was signed, U.S. WTI crude fell to about $73 per barrel, down from earlier peaks. Onchain analysts reported accumulation around recent lows in Bitcoin and identified roughly $60,000 as a defended local support level, based on observed buying by several investor cohorts.

Exchange flows showed notable short‑term selling. One analyst reported that short‑term holder inflows to a major exchange exceeded 80,000 BTC over seven days, representing about $5 billion of selling pressure. At the same time, analysis of large holders found that long‑term holders continued to hold positions while short‑term holders were more active, a pattern described as market consolidation by the analysts.

Traders said they will watch whether the dollar sustains gains, how the PCE print alters rate expectations, whether oil resumes a decline, whether exchange outflows slow and whether large holders increase accumulation. These factors are expected to influence Bitcoin’s price in the coming days.