JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of credit cycle echoes

Speaking during the bank’s investor update in New York on Feb. 23, Dimon said the pre-crisis years were marked by a rising tide that “was lifting all boats” and a rush to make money as leverage built up across the system. He said he is again seeing behavior that reminds him of 2005 through 2007, though he did not name specific competitors.

Dimon contrasted that with JPMorgan’s stance, saying the bank is not willing to take on riskier loans simply to generate higher net interest income. “I see a couple of people doing some dumb things… to create NII,” he said, using the industry shorthand for net interest income.

His comments focused on credit conditions rather than immediate stress. Dimon said he expects the credit cycle will eventually turn, though he said he does not know when, and repeated a warning he has made in recent months that deterioration often appears first in unexpected corners of the market.

He pointed to recent market anxiety around artificial intelligence as one potential source of the next surprise. “There’s always a surprise in a credit cycle,” Dimon said, adding that “this time around, it might be software because of AI,” while also saying he doubts AI-related disruption would translate into major credit losses for the bank.

Dimon’s warning came as investors have been reassessing risk across financial assets after a stretch of strong performance and heavy competition for loans. He referenced high asset prices and the tendency for leverage to build when conditions appear benign, describing a period when “the sky was the limit.”

He also addressed how JPMorgan is positioning itself around AI internally. Dimon said he views the bank as a long-term winner in the AI transition, even if outcomes vary across business lines, telling investors that in “100 areas” JPMorgan would likely win in most and lose in some.

The investor session also returned attention to leadership succession at the largest U.S. bank, a recurring topic on Wall Street after Dimon’s two decades running the firm. Dimon said he expects to remain CEO for “a few years,” and potentially stay on as executive chairman after that, adding that the timing ultimately depends on the board.

Dimon framed his broader message as a caution about how quickly credit conditions can change when competitive pressure pushes lenders toward thinner margins and looser standards. His comparison to the mid-2000s centered on the idea that strong markets can mask growing risk-taking, even when headline indicators still look calm.