CryptoQuant says Strategy is building a dollar reserve ahead of a possible bear market

In CryptoQuant’s view, this looks like an attempt to sit through a possible bear cycle without touching Strategy’s bitcoin stash.

According to CryptoQuant’s estimate, the new reserve covers more than three years of payments at the current load. In practice, Strategy is moving to a two-tier setup: bitcoin remains the core strategic asset, while the dollar cushion turns into a safety buffer for all USD‑denominated obligations. This step lowers the risk of forced BTC sales during a deep drawdown and should reassure holders of the company’s bonds and preferred stock.

At the same time, on-chain data shows that buying activity has slowed sharply. By CryptoQuant’s calculations, at the peak in 2024 Strategy was adding up to 134,000 BTC a month, whereas by fall 2025 that volume had dropped to roughly 9,100 BTC, and in early December it was down to just a few hundred coins. In other words, the market’s main public “crypto vacuum cleaner” has eased off, and its extra demand is now much less visible.

The backdrop for this pivot is fairly straightforward. In October, S&P assigned Strategy a B‑ rating in junk territory, stressing the company’s narrow business model, weak risk‑adjusted capital and limited dollar liquidity. The balance sheet is tied to a volatile BTC position, while key obligations are denominated in US dollars. Earlier, even though Strategy formally met the requirements, it failed to make it into the S&P 500 index, which was read as a cold signal from traditional index gatekeepers and regulators.

Against this background, the new dollar reserve looks like Saylor’s answer to Wall Street’s concerns. For the first time in a long while, he is not just doubling down on bitcoin, but also showing that the company can live through a long correction and keep paying its bills in fiat. On paper, this is still a big bet on BTC as the main asset, but now with a clear nod to the demands of rating agencies and index committees.

CryptoQuant also notes that if the bearish scenario plays out, bitcoin in 2026 might end up trading in the $55,000–70,000 range. In that environment, a $1.44 billion cushion lets Strategy keep up its “HODL” image instead of dumping coins at the bottom. For bitcoin itself, the signal cuts both ways: a major buyer has stepped back from aggressive accumulation, yet the odds of a panic sell‑off from the largest corporate holder are lower as well.

As a result, the Strategy story is slowly shifting from a pure tale of bitcoin maximalism to something more down‑to‑earth: even the most committed fans of digital gold eventually have to build a classic risk‑management framework.