Can Bitcoin Rebound in July After June’s 18.5% Drop

Bitcoin lost about 18.5% in June and is testing the $60,000 support level after a month of selling. Traders are watching whether the price will fall further in July or reverse course.

Heatmap data shows a large concentration of short positions clustered near $67,645. The map indicates roughly $247.39 million in liquidation leverage at that level and about $2.26 billion in cumulative short liquidation exposure in the same area. When many short positions are concentrated at similar prices, forced buybacks to cover those shorts can create rapid upward pressure if the market reaches that zone.

Analyst Fleh wrote in a public post that he expects Bitcoin to hold a floor near $60,000 for now and to rally to $75,000 in July before any renewed downside. He cited the concentrated short-liquidation zone as a potential catalyst for a short squeeze.

Historical monthly returns show July has been a positive month for Bitcoin on average. Data since 2013 gives July an average gain of about 7.6%. In midterm election years, July’s average return rises to about 10.3%.

Past July performances include a gain of roughly 21% in 2018 and nearly 17% in 2022. More recent Julys recorded gains of about 3% in 2024 and 8% in 2025. Using a $60,000 reference price, a 7.6% rise projects to about $64,500 and a 10.3% rise to about $66,100. Larger monthly rebounds in prior years would place Bitcoin in the low $70,000s, and a bigger rally could reach around $75,000.

Technical indicators offer counterpoints. Bitcoin has slipped below its 200-week simple moving average, near $62,445, a long-term level that has acted as support in previous cycles. A breach of that average in past downturns was followed by deeper losses.

Some chart patterns also point to a bear-flag breakdown with a potential downside target near $55,000 if Bitcoin does not reclaim the 200-week average soon.

Market participants say price action around $60,000, the 200-week moving average and the concentrated short-liquidation area near $67,600 will be watched for signals. If the price rises into the liquidation cluster, short-covering would require buying Bitcoin back and could add upward pressure. If the price continues lower and fails to regain the 200-week average, extended downside would remain possible.

Traders and investors will monitor these technical levels, the distribution of leverage above the market and July’s historical profile for clues to near-term price direction.