Calm October peak may push Bitcoin cycle floor to $40K–$46K

Galaxy Digital’s research team analyzed every Bitcoin cycle top and bottom and found the four-year cycle still follows historical timing. Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of research, wrote that October 2025’s peak was unusually calm: only two of 11 traditional topping indicators flashed and the Pi Cycle Top indicator did not trigger. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio peaked at 2.29, below the 2.93–5.91 range in earlier cycles, and the network’s cost basis now equals 43.7% of the all-time high, compared with about 34%, 21% and 17% in prior cycles.

Using a realized price of $53,600, Galaxy’s analysis places a base-case cycle bottom between $40,000 and $46,000. A shallower decline would hold near $51,000–$54,000, while a deeper washout could push prices to $30,000–$37,000. Thorn cautioned that the implied floor can move if holders sell at a loss: “The catch: the floor can move. Cost basis is reflexive. In a real panic, coins change hands at a loss and drag the average down. A 10–30% cost basis decline pulls the implied floor from ~$40k back toward $28k.”

Galaxy’s peak-to-trough analysis shows declines have narrowed across cycles, from about 85% and 84% in earlier periods to 77% in 2022 and 51% in 2026. Previous cycle lows formed roughly 12–13 months after the market peak; the current drawdown is roughly eight months old. Galaxy found only four of 13 bottoming indicators have triggered so far.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant places Bitcoin inside a valuation zone that has aligned with major bear-market lows. Bitcoin recently traded near $59,000, about 9% above the realized price of $53,600. CryptoQuant reported a combined weekly decline of 652,000 BTC across speculative futures demand and apparent spot demand, the largest contraction since January 2022, and a one-year demand gauge that has turned negative.

Galaxy’s figures show an orderly, shallow decline would keep the floor higher because the network cost basis remains elevated. A sharp panic that forces loss-bearing sales would lower the cost basis and could push the cycle floor substantially lower.