Buyers at $107K point to early 2026 Bitcoin bottom: Glassnode
Glassnode reports holders who bought near $107,000 and held one to two years are seeing realized losses cool, a historical signal that a 2026 bear-market bottom may be forming.
Glassnode flagged an onchain pattern it says has preceded past Bitcoin market troughs: realized losses for holders who bought about one to two years ago have begun to cool and roll over. The analytics firm focused on dollar-denominated realized loss volume for the 1–2 year cohort in a post on X by researcher Cryptovizart.
Coins in the 1–2 year cohort last moved at a loss between July 2024 and July 2025, a period when BTC/USD rose from roughly $62,800 to about $107,000. Glassnode’s chart of the 30-day simple moving average of realized losses for that group showed a spike above $75 million before starting to decline.
Cryptovizart wrote, “One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market’s end is Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1–2 year holders.” The researcher added that when the 30-day SMA of their realized loss “cools and rolls over,” it has often been an early sign that heavy distribution has passed.
Glassnode also highlighted a potential near-term price battleground tied to short-term holders’ aggregate cost basis, which the platform put around $69,000. The firm noted that level overlaps with prior all-time highs from the 2021 bull market and said, “The first meeting with that level will likely draw a strong reaction, because the people most inclined to sell are the ones about to be made whole.” Glassnode added that a convincing reclaim of that price would allow a recovery more room to run, while a rejection would keep the current trading range intact.
Other onchain measures cited by analysts include stochastic RSI readings on two-month charts that have historically aligned with market reversal conditions. Glassnode described the combination of realized loss rollover for the 1–2 year cohort, speculator cost-basis near $69,000, and multi-month momentum indicators as signals to monitor as the market evolves.
Glassnode emphasized that these observations track patterns seen before past lows and do not guarantee future outcomes. Traders continue to watch realized losses, holder cohorts and key price levels for changes in selling pressure and momentum.
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