Bitcoin nears $68K as Bitwise says it’s undervalued, fear stays

Bitcoin gained about 2% over the past 24 hours to trade near $68,000, with sentiment still depressed as the Fear & Greed Index remained at “extreme fear” for the 20th consecutive day. Bitwise’s André Dragosch views the coin as undervalued. The advance comes after a drop earlier this month that took prices to roughly $60,000.

“Apart from COVID, bitcoin doesn’t usually show V-shaped recoveries after strong capitulations,” according to Dragosch. “The most likely case is that we continue to move sideways to down.”

He pointed to factors that could help over time. Prediction markets currently place the odds of the U.S. Clarity Act passing in 2026 near 80%, which he described as a potential boost for ether and solana. He also flagged Bitwise’s Cryptoasset Sentiment Index as neutral.

On valuation, his view is that bitcoin trades at significant ‘discounts’ versus measures such as global money supply, gold, and the broader growth backdrop. He also highlighted an “undervaluation relative to global Bitcoin ETP flows.” In his words: “ETP flows are still relatively weak, but once risk appetite and flows return, this suggests we could see a significant catch-up in bitcoin.”

Signs of profit-taking persist. On-chain data compiled by CryptoQuant show large holders have moved coins to Binance at record levels, a pattern that often precedes sales and can increase spot supply.

Dragosch pushed back on the view that bitcoin is a “canary in the macro coal mine” for tightening liquidity or rising recession risk. He pointed to the U.S. yield curve and other leading indicators as consistent with continued money-supply growth. By his estimate, global liquidity is expanding at more than 10% a year, and prediction markets have lowered the probability of a U.S. recession from over 40% in mid-2025 to just above 20% now.

Volatility may pick up into the weekend. The U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures index is due later today, an inflation gauge that can influence Federal Reserve policy. Higher inflation can support the case for scarce assets such as bitcoin, while a hawkish policy response could lift the dollar and weigh on risk assets.

As we reported earlier, worldwide Google searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” rose to their highest level since early November 2022, coinciding with a pullback from Bitcoin’s recent record and a shift to “extreme fear” on the Fear & Greed Index. At the same time, sovereign funds such as Abu Dhabi and some corporations increased their stakes in spot Bitcoin ETFs.