Bitwise CIO maps path to $1M Bitcoin via store-of-value gains

In a recent memo published, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan outlined how Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin by expanding its share of the global store-of-value market.

He estimated the market at just under $38 trillion, including about $36 trillion in gold and roughly $1.4 trillion in BTC, leaving Bitcoin at just under 4% today. At that size, his math shows Bitcoin would need to capture more than half the market to trade near $1 million per coin.

Hougan argued that many investors overlook the market’s growth. When the first U.S. gold ETF launched in 2004, he wrote, gold was worth about $2.5 trillion. Since then, what he defines as the store-of-value market has expanded to roughly $38 trillion, a pace he described at about 13% annually, influenced by rising government debt, geopolitical uncertainty and loose monetary policy.

If that market were to approach about $121 trillion within the next decade, as in his projection, Bitcoin would need to secure around 17% to reach $1 million. As of this publication, the largest cryptocurrency is trading just under $70,000.

Hougan pointed to recent adoption trends. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have gathered assets rapidly since launch, and long-term volatility has eased. He also cited increased participation by large investors, including Harvard’s endowment and an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund. According to him, some professional allocators now discuss 5% positions in portfolios, compared with prior guidance closer to 1%.

Risks remain, he noted, including a slower pace of growth in the store-of-value market or Bitcoin failing to gain share. He added that his estimates could prove “too conservative” if worries about government debt and fiat currency debasement lift demand for alternative assets.

Hougan has floated similar long-term targets before. In 2023, he projected that Bitcoin could top $1 million by 2032, and last month he outlined a 20-year target near $6.5 million.