Bitwise CIO says gold above 5000 and Clarity Act limbo shape crypto outlook

Hougan pointed to gold’s rally of about 65% in 2025 and a further 16% so far in 2026, pushing the metal above $5,000 per troy ounce for the first time. He added that roughly half of gold’s dollar denominated value has been created over the past 20 months, and linked the move to what he described as years of money printing, rising debt and currency debasement. He also wrote that the trend reflects demand for non sovereign stores of value and for holding wealth without relying on intermediaries.

In the same note, Hougan tied the gold rally to what he described as weakening institutional trust. He wrote that central banks doubled annual gold purchases after the United States seized Russian treasury assets in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, and cited calls by German economists to repatriate gold held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He also referenced a Norwegian government panel warning that sovereign wealth could face higher taxation, regulatory intervention or confiscation.

Hougan said the policy backdrop for crypto in the United States remains uncertain because the Clarity Act, which he described as legislation intended to codify the current pro crypto regulatory environment, is in limbo. He wrote that prediction market odds for passage were near 80% earlier this year but have fallen closer to 50% after recent setbacks, including Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong calling the current version of the bill unworkable.

Hougan wrote that passage of a version acceptable to the industry could trigger a sharp rally as investors price in growth for stablecoins and tokenization, while failure could lead to a longer wait and see period in which prices track real world adoption. He added that if the bill does not pass, crypto could face a three year period in which use cases such as stablecoins and tokenized stocks become more important for the direction of regulation.

As GNcrypto wrote on 22 January 2026, Bitwise said the fourth quarter of 2025 delivered mixed signals, with major crypto prices falling while several activity and revenue measures increased. The note highlighted all time highs in Ethereum and layer 2 transaction counts, stablecoin market capitalization topping $300 billion during the quarter, and periods when Uniswap processed more trading volume than Coinbase, and it listed Clarity Act progress, U.S. stablecoin rules, potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and wider access to crypto exchange traded funds at large brokerages as themes to watch in 2026.