Bitcoin tops $63K on Juneteenth as July Fed hike odds near 40%
Bitcoin rose above $63,000 on Juneteenth as markets digested a hawkish Fed tone, with traders placing roughly a 40% probability on a July 29 rate increase.
Bitcoin rose above $63,000 on Friday as markets reacted to a hawkish Federal Reserve tone and renewed geopolitical tensions. Traders placed roughly a 40% probability on a rate increase at the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Charting services showed BTC/USD slipping to eight-day lows earlier in the session before recovering to the $63,000 area. Short-term trading remained subdued after the initial drop.
The FOMC left policy rates unchanged in the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. In a post-meeting statement, Warsh wrote, “Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.”
The statement was shorter than prior releases and contained less forward guidance. A trading newsletter observed that Warsh suggested the dot plot and other forms of Fed guidance could be changed or removed, reducing the amount of future detail on policy outlook.
U.S. equity markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday, leaving cryptocurrency markets to absorb the policy signals with lower U.S. liquidity. Market-implied odds of a July rate increase tightened conditions for risk assets.
Separately, the U.S.-Iran situation re-entered market calculations. A memorandum of understanding guarantees free passage through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days; Iranian statements indicated transit beyond that term would require Iran’s permission. West Texas Intermediate crude traded near $75 per barrel after earlier moving off lows recorded in early March.
An analyst posted on social media that “There tends to be a Black Swan event in the second half of Bitcoin Bear Markets. Lesson there.” Trading remained cautious despite Bitcoin’s recovery above $63,000.
Upcoming U.S. economic releases and any further Federal Reserve commentary are scheduled this week, and the status of the Strait of Hormuz agreement remains unresolved.
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