Cantor Fitzgerald cuts Strategy target by 60%

Cantor Fitzgerald on Thursday lowered its 12-month price target on Strategy (MSTR) by about 60% to $229 in a research note, citing Bitcoin’s decline since early October and mNAV compression across digital-asset tracker stocks. The firm kept an overweight rating on the shares.

“We believe it is prudent to adjust our valuation,” the note stated, while characterizing recent market weakness as a “healthy pullback” and maintaining a long-term view on Bitcoin.

The note addressed the risk that Strategy could be forced to sell Bitcoin. It outlined that the company has cash to fund dividends for 21 months, holds roughly $60.7 billion of Bitcoin against $8.2 billion of debt, and has no debt maturities until 2028. The analysts pointed to available equity financing if needed and wrote that, absent a roughly 90% drop from current Bitcoin levels, forced sales appear unlikely.

On potential index-related selling, the note highlighted an MSCI review of whether to exclude companies from certain indexes if digital-asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets. Removal could trigger passive outflows from Strategy, which the firm described as a near-term flow risk rather than a change to fundamentals.

Regarding whether Strategy is buying the dip, the note described a policy of acquiring Bitcoin when it is accretive, regardless of price. It compared the current environment to 2022, when purchases slowed, and called concerns about a lack of buying unwarranted.

The analysts also pushed back on the idea that Strategy could be a market “black swan,” citing the balance sheet and liquidity options. “This fear is not warranted,” the note read.

Cantor identified itself as Strategy’s ninth-largest shareholder. The note reaffirmed a long-term thesis that Bitcoin could become a global reserve asset and estimated Bitcoin’s market value is about 6.1% of gold’s. By its calculation, Bitcoin would need to reach about $1,577,860 per coin to match gold’s market capitalization.

As we covered previously, JPMorgan said Strategy’s ability to stay financially stable without selling bitcoin is a factor for BTC. The bank cited an enterprise-value-to-bitcoin ratio of 1.13, which they said implies no liquidation pressure, and noted a $1.44 billion cash reserve that could cover up to two years of dividends and interest.

It flagged MSCI index-removal risk after MSTR fell 40% since Oct. 10, underperforming bitcoin by 20%, while pointing to miner stress from lower hash rate, reduced difficulty, and high energy costs. JPMorgan estimated BTC production cost near $90,000 and modeled a 6–12 month target of $170,000.