Bitcoin retreats from three-month highs as weekly close looms

Bitcoin slid to about $77,200 on Thursday after reaching $79,500 the previous day, marking its highest level in roughly three months. Traders highlighted the upcoming weekly candle and whether price can reclaim the bull market support band.

Market data showed BTC/USD near $77,200 before the Wall Street open, with the $80,000 mark still out of reach. Participants attributed the pullback to short-term profit-taking and technical resistance in the current price zone.

Technical analysis focuses on the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). That line, together with the 20-week simple moving average (SMA), forms the bull market support band. Bitcoin last traded above the band in October 2025 and the band has been absent as support for roughly six months.

Trader Jelle wrote on X that recent price action had taken out highs and short stops without following through, suggesting liquidity was being gathered for a larger position and questioning when buyers would accelerate. Daan Crypto Trades posted that Bitcoin was attempting to break back above the bull market support band and that the weekly close would be important.

Macro markets offered few fresh catalysts on the day. Geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran produced limited movement. Traders turned their attention to a busy week of U.S. inflation reports and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed almost no chance of a rate change at next week’s meeting, leaving short-term rate expectations steady. Trading firm QCP Capital wrote that oil falling below $100 would support a relief case for markets, while clearer Fed communication would reduce the policy premium priced into risky assets. QCP added that macroeconomic and geopolitical overhangs remain.

Near-term price action will reflect whether buyers can translate intraday gains into a weekly close above the bull market support band and the 21-week EMA. A sustained weekly trade above those trend lines would be the first since October 2025; if that does not occur, market participants expect trading to remain around current resistance levels while they await clearer macro signals.