Bitcoin faces quantum risks that threaten its long-term advantage over gold

Bitcoin is confronting a new structural challenge: as market attention shifts toward quantum computing, investors are beginning to price potential quantum risk into BTC’s long-term valuation. Analysts say the possibility that quantum machines could eventually break modern cryptographic algorithms is no longer a fringe scenario – it is influencing bitcoin’s perceived value today.

A central concern involves roughly 4 million BTC considered “lost”: their private keys are unavailable, yet their public keys are exposed on-chain. If a quantum attack succeeds, these coins could be recovered and returned to circulation, undermining one of bitcoin’s core narratives – fixed supply.

Debate is also growing around how the network might respond. Some argue the community could attempt to freeze vulnerable coins through a hard fork. But such a move would break with foundational principles of immutability and fungibility, likely igniting conflict between those willing to rewrite rules and those insisting on strict backward compatibility.

If the chain does not intervene, a supply shock equivalent to “eight years of institutional accumulation” could hit the market, creating a persistent discount relative to gold. Analysts note that bitcoin’s decade-long pattern of steadily increasing purchasing power in gold terms already appears disrupted.

Developers stress there is no immediate threat. The industry has early-stage plans for a gradual migration to post-quantum keys and addresses – not through an emergency overhaul, but via a years-long transition. Even if early coins become accessible, some experts believe they would not flood the market at once; large players or governments might accumulate them instead.

Still, attention to the issue is accelerating beyond the crypto industry. In January, a leading global macro strategist removed bitcoin from his model portfolio and increased gold exposure, citing quantum risk as a decisive factor for long-term investors.

Quantum technologies remain far from breaking bitcoin in practice, but their rapid advancement is already reshaping demand dynamics. The market is beginning to price in a new variable – and that shift is altering long-term expectations for BTC.