Bitcoin profit supply nears previous bear-market low, CryptoQuant analyst says

CryptoQuant data indicates roughly 11.2 million Bitcoin are currently in profit, approaching prior bear-market lows of about 9 million coins, while about 8.2 million Bitcoin are trading at an unrealized loss. Glassnode data aligns with the loss figure, and the readings were reported on April 2, 2026.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote that the current level of supply in profit is closing in on previous cycle lows. “This is quite significant, considering that during the last bear market this figure reached about 10.6 million BTC,” the analyst wrote, adding that present readings are comparable to conditions in the prior bear period.

On-chain indicators show differences from earlier downturns. Bitcoin is down about 52% from its cycle high, smaller than the 77% to 84% declines seen in earlier bear markets. In 2022, more than half of supply traded at a loss and supply in profit fell to around 45% or lower; measures such as net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) reached extreme lows at that time.

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, expressed a different reading of the latest metrics. He told reporters the data points to “increasing market stress, not immediate undervaluation,” and noted that true capitulation bottoms in past cycles involved deeper losses. He added that current readings could indicate an early to mid-bear transition and that a potential structural bottom might be near $55,000 if selling continues.

Macro conditions are cited as a headwind for price recovery. Market commentator Timothy Peterson wrote on social media that Bitcoin “tends to struggle when the dollar is strong, and the Chinese yuan is weak,” citing tighter global liquidity and higher dollar yields that attract capital to cash and bonds. He projected that meaningful relief for crypto markets would require U.S. interest rates to fall and dollar yields to lose their current appeal, a scenario he does not expect before the second half of 2026 or more likely 2027. The U.S. dollar index has risen about 5% over the past two months.

For clarity, “in profit” refers to coins last moved at a price below the current market price, meaning holders would realize gains if they sold. “In loss” means coins were last moved at a price above the current market price, implying unrealized losses. NUPL measures aggregate unrealized gains or losses across holders, and MVRV compares market value to realized value to identify periods of potential overvaluation or undervaluation.

Analysts report that movement of profit-and-loss metrics toward prior cycle lows can be interpreted in different ways: as a sign that a market bottom could be approaching or as evidence of rising market strain. The data and commentary reflect ongoing debate among market observers about near-term direction and timing for any structural recovery. Earlier, JPMorgan said that Bitcoin has held up better than gold and silver during the Iran conflict.