Bitcoin price gets bullish signal as mining activity declines, VanEck says
VanEck analysts wrote in a note dated Dec. 22, 2025 that Bitcoin has historically been more likely to post positive 90-day returns after periods of declining mining activity.
The report, titled “Mid-December 2025 ChainCheck,” describes the pattern as a contrarian signal linked to miner capitulation, when weaker operators exit under financial stress.
Based on data going back to 2014, VanEck found that 90-day forward Bitcoin returns were positive 65% of the time when network hashrate was shrinking, versus 54% when hashrate was growing. The analysts added that longer stretches of hashrate compression have tended to coincide with more frequent and larger forward gains, while emphasizing the relationship is historical.
The firm said the signal is resurfacing as Bitcoin hashrate fell about 4% in the month through Dec. 15, 2025, marking the sharpest monthly decline since April 2024. Mining profitability has weakened alongside recent price moves, according to the report. VanEck estimated the breakeven electricity cost for a mid-generation rig such as Bitmain’s Antminer S19 XP fell from about $0.12 per kilowatt-hour in late 2024 to roughly $0.077 by mid-December 2025, narrowing the margin for higher-cost operators.
Bitcoin traded near $87,907 as of 12:05 a.m. EST on Dec. 23, 2025, down 1.09% over the prior 24 hours, according to The Block. The asset slid to around $81,000 on Nov. 21, 2025 after reaching an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025.
VanEck also pointed to continued accumulation by institutional-style buyers. The report estimated that digital asset treasury companies bought about 42,000 BTC from mid-November to mid-December, a 4% month-over-month increase, lifting combined holdings to roughly 1.09 million BTC. VanEck noted the largest comparable monthly increase occurred from mid-July to mid-August 2025, when treasuries added more than 128,000 BTC, and added that it expects more of these firms to rely on preferred-share issuance rather than common stock to fund future purchases.
As GNcrypto reported on Nov. 17, 2025, VanEck selected Toronto-based SOL Strategies to manage staking for SOL held in its planned U.S. spot Solana ETF via the firm’s Orangefin validator, following VanEck’s Form 8-A filing with the SEC as it readies the fund for listing. SOL Strategies, which rebranded from Cypherpunk Holdings, says it operates ISO 27001- and SOC 2-certified validators securing about CAD$610 million ($437 million) in staked assets and holds about 524,000 SOL in its treasury; its shares trade as HODL on the Canadian Securities Exchange and STKE on the Nasdaq Capital Market.
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