Bitcoin price may fall toward 56,000 as Galaxy sees few catalysts for gains

Thorn argued that catalysts for a sustained rebound remain hard to identify and that narratives are working against bitcoin because it has not tracked gold and silver in what he described as a broader debasement hedge trade.

Bitcoin rose about 3% on 2 February 2026 to trade just under $78,500 after rebounding from a nine-month low, but remained roughly 39% below an early October record above $126,000, according to CoinGecko data cited in the report.

Thorn noted that bitcoin has historically traded below its realized price at the bottom of prior bear markets and has often found support around or slightly below that level before moving higher. He also pointed to the 200-week moving average as a reference point that has acted as key support in the past when bitcoin fell below its 50-week moving average. He added that bitcoin lost support at its 50-week moving average in November 2025 and that the 200-week moving average is currently around $58,000.

He added that there is little evidence of significant accumulation by large buyers and long-term holders, suggesting some investors may be waiting for lower prices before adding exposure. At the same time, Thorn noted that long-term holder profit-taking has begun to abate, which he described as a sign the market may be approaching a bottom, while warning that additional selling could emerge if some holders wait for higher prices to exit.

Thorn also addressed U.S. market structure legislation, noting that passage could serve as a near-term external catalyst but that odds of approval have diminished in recent weeks. He added that any positive momentum from a bill is more likely to benefit altcoins than bitcoin.