Bitcoin price may form higher bear-market floor, technicals suggest

The analyst, who posts under the pseudonym “Sykodelic,” told followers that forecasts of a deep drop toward $35,000 in 2026 are “absolute rubbish,” contending that Bitcoin has not shown the kind of overheated expansion that typically precedes 70%–75% drawdowns. Bitcoin is currently around 31% below its early October peak of roughly $126,000, a scale of pullback the analyst describes as normal within a broader bull cycle.

In their view, the key reference point is the monthly Bollinger Bands, a long-term volatility indicator that has historically framed Bitcoin’s cyclical extremes. The analyst notes that BTC has never closed a monthly candle significantly below the lower Bollinger Band, even during the 2017 and 2021 blow-off tops, when the asset later dropped 84% and 77% from peak to trough, respectively.

Because the current cycle’s upside “expansion” was weaker than in prior manias, they argue that a proportionally severe “contraction” to the $30,000–$40,000 range would be inconsistent with previous patterns. Instead, they outline what they call an “absolute worst-case scenario” in which a confirmed bear market sends Bitcoin down toward the lower monthly Bollinger Band but not through it, implying a maximum downside around $55,000 if the current candle closes below the band’s midline.

Other market watchers cited in the same analysis say even that level may be conservative. Jeff Ko, chief analyst at crypto exchange CoinEx, estimates that a bear-case correction would more likely see Bitcoin revisit the $65,000–$68,000 area, framing that zone as a plausible support band rather than a new cycle low far below $60,000.

The debate comes after Bitcoin slid from its October all-time high near $126,000 amid a broader risk-off shift in global markets. Over the past month, BTC has given back more than 30%, while traders reassess expectations for interest rates, liquidity conditions and flows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Analysts pointing to the $55,000 threshold say that, despite the sharp pullback, the structure still resembles a large correction within an ongoing bull phase rather than the start of a multi-year downtrend.

Supporters of the higher-floor thesis also highlight the maturing market structure around Bitcoin. They argue that the presence of regulated spot ETFs, greater institutional participation and deeper derivatives markets may dampen the kind of extreme capitulation seen in earlier cycles, even if volatility remains elevated. Others, however, warn that structural changes can cut both ways, making liquidity more fragile during risk-off episodes and potentially amplifying selloffs.

For now, the $55,000 level is emerging as a reference point in technical discussions about how far the current drawdown could extend. Whether Bitcoin finds support above that line or breaks lower will depend on how macro conditions, ETF flows and market sentiment evolve into 2026, but the latest round of analysis underlines that not all chart-based bear targets agree on a return to the kind of deep retraces seen in past cycles.