Bitcoin price set to hit new all time high within 6 months, says Grayscale

The asset manager attributed the call to continued institutional demand and a friendlier U.S. policy backdrop, positioning the forecast within a broader set of themes for digital assets next year.

In the report, Grayscale wrote that rising public‑sector debt and the inflation risks associated with it are supporting portfolio demand for Bitcoin and Ether. “As long as the risk of fiat currency debasement keeps rising, portfolio demand for Bitcoin and Ether will likely continue rising as well,” the firm said. The document also suggested the industry’s long‑debated “four‑year cycle” could fade, noting: “We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so‑called four‑year cycle… Bitcoin’s price will likely reach a new all‑time high in the first half of the year.”

Grayscale tied its outlook to changes in U.S. regulation and market infrastructure. The firm cited the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETPs in 2024, the passage of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins in 2025, and shifting supervisory approaches, with agencies prioritizing clearer guidance alongside consumer protection. Looking ahead, the report says Grayscale expects Congress to consider bipartisan market‑structure legislation in 2026 that would formalize treatment of blockchain‑based finance in U.S. capital markets and support continued institutional participation.

The paper also outlined priority areas it expects to develop through 2026, including expansion of the stablecoin market following recent legislation, growth in tokenization, and increased activity in decentralized finance, particularly lending and staking. Grayscale said it anticipates practical outcomes such as stablecoins in cross‑border payments, collateral use on derivatives venues, and balance‑sheet adoption by corporates. At the same time, the firm downplayed two narratives for 2026, saying advances in post‑quantum cryptography are unlikely to affect valuations over the next year and that digital asset treasuries are not expected to be a major swing factor.

Bitcoin traded near $85,800 in recent sessions. Grayscale framed price action within what it called improving macro conditions for alternative stores of value and steady progress on policy. The report was published as part of the firm’s annual outlook and summarized ten investing themes it expects to matter across public blockchain technology in 2026.

Previously on GNcrypto: on 11 December 2025 the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (the third reduction this year), after a 9–3 vote, and Bitcoin briefly moved above $94,000 before remaining below $100,000. Glassnode data showed BTC trading in a structurally narrow band between the short‑term cost basis ($102,700) and the True Market Mean ($81,300), with unrealized losses near 4.4% and realized losses around $555 million per day; long‑term holders realized more than $1 billion per day at peak. CryptoQuant reported rising spot demand alongside declining futures open interest since 21 November, indicating weaker leveraged participation during the rebound.