Bitcoin stays near $81,500 as Iran tensions hit stocks

Bitcoin traded near $81,500 on Thursday, down about 3% for the day, after President Donald Trump said the United States was “not negotiating” with Iran. Traders were also watching developments in the conflict and the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 28 policy meeting.

Bitcoin fell to $81,256 on Bitstamp around the opening of Wall Street, according to TradingView data. The decline followed a rise toward $85,000 on Wednesday and left the cryptocurrency near the estimated cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which is about $81,500.

Trump told reporters the United States would “have something one way or the other” with Iran “fairly soon.” He referred to the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 3 while saying the two countries were not negotiating.

U.S. stocks fell at the open. The S&P 500 was down 1.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.3% at the time of writing. Tesla’s earnings and capital spending plans added pressure to technology shares. Higher energy prices also weighed on stocks.

“Tech stocks came under pressure amid renewed AI valuation fears. The rebound in energy prices contributed to the risk-off tone,” Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said. “Treasuries have emerged as a primary beneficiary as global risk sentiment has come under pressure.”

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to its lowest level since Sept. 23 as investors sought government bonds. Bitcoin has traded alongside other risk assets during the latest market decline.

Analysts at Bitfinex Alpha expect Bitcoin to remain between $81,300 and $84,400 until the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting on Oct. 28. They wrote that continued exchange-traded fund demand and stable leverage could support a break above $84,400. A close below $81,300 could expose Bitcoin to a decline toward the Oct. 15 low of $79,821.

Traders on Kalshi put the probability of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by mid-January 2027 at 3%, according to the market’s data.