Bitcoin near $77K; Binance inflows raise odds of $82.7K

Bitcoin was trading near $77,000 as it tested the lower trend line of an ascending channel that has guided price since early April. Each test of the channel’s lower boundary has produced rebounds of about 8%–10%.

On four-hour charts, Bitcoin is consolidating in a support band around $76,800–$77,500 that aligns with the 20-period and 50-period exponential moving averages. A move higher from that zone would target the channel’s upper boundary near $82,700, roughly 7.7% above current levels. A break below the channel would put $73,600 in focus, a level that corresponds with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and the 200-period 4-hour EMA.

Exchange data show Binance recorded nearly $6 billion in stablecoin net inflows across March and April, including about $3.5 billion in April alone, reversing prior net outflows of roughly $7.6 billion. Stablecoin inflows are tracked as deployable capital on exchanges and add liquidity available to traders.

On-chain valuation measures show Bitcoin has moved back above the MVRV -0.5 standard deviation band at about $72,750. The MVRV compares spot price to holders’ aggregate cost basis. In past downturns, reclaiming that lower deviation band preceded rallies toward the mean MVRV band; analysts identify a potential upside reference near $94,500 based on that pattern.

Analyst Willy Woo wrote: “The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k). I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt.” He has identified about $65,000 as a key floor and said the coming weeks will be important for assessing whether the rally evolves into a longer-lived trend reversal.

Near-term levels to watch are the $76,800–$77,500 support zone, $82,700 resistance at the channel top, and $73,600 on a downside break. Traders will also monitor exchange stablecoin balances and MVRV bands for signals about available liquidity and market valuation.