Author: Bitcoin near $59K cheaper than 90% of history

Lawrence Lepard, author of The Big Print, told host Chase Palmieri that bitcoin trading near $59,000 is cheaper than about 90% of its historical range according to a log-scale power law model. He referenced work by Giovanni Santostasi and Fred Krueger and said the model fits bitcoin’s full price history with a 95% R-squared correlation. Lepard added that bitcoin recently fell below its 200-day moving average and sits roughly half a standard deviation below the model’s mean, a zone occupied less than 10% of the time.

Lepard noted prior bear markets produced deeper drawdowns of about 70%, 80% and 90%. He described the current decline from October’s peak at about 50% and said a further drop to the low $50,000s is possible, while a fall below $50,000 is unlikely.

On monetary policy, Lepard argued that Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a preference for rate cuts despite recent market pricing of hikes. He referred to Warsh’s past remarks endorsing the Dallas trimmed mean PCE and comparing productivity gains from artificial intelligence to the mid-1990s tech period. Lepard said stronger inflation prints tied to higher oil prices after a maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz shifted market expectations toward hikes, a view he disputes.

Lepard cited the U.S. government’s annual interest expense of about $1.3 trillion as a constraint on materially raising rates. He described Warsh’s new task force on inflation measurement as designed to support lower reported inflation and to create a path to rate cuts before the 2026 midterm elections. “The odds of the Fed raising the rates this year is zero,” he said.

On fiscal risk, Lepard pointed to a U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio near 124% and compared the scale of past crisis interventions, roughly $2 trillion to $3 trillion after 2008 and about $5 trillion during the COVID period. He expects a future intervention to be larger and faster.

Lepard identified bitcoin, gold and silver as protection against monetary debasement, placing bitcoin first because it cannot be printed, transfers quickly and does not require storage facilities. He reported reducing gold and silver holdings to buy bitcoin and shares of MicroStrategy.

Regarding MicroStrategy, Lepard estimated the company faces about $1.7 billion in annual preferred dividends and held roughly $55 billion in bitcoin at the time of the interview. He calculated that selling about 4% of its bitcoin each year would cover the dividend and that a 4% annual price gain would let common shareholders break even under that plan. He argued the company’s structure would be threatened only by a collapse in bitcoin.

Lepard said he personally holds a large bitcoin position and a significant stake in MicroStrategy. He advised investors to size bitcoin exposure so a 50% decline would not force a sale and suggested a lump-sum purchase may be appropriate at current prices. He offered price targets derived from the power law model: about $180,000 within two years, about $1 million around 2031–2032, and roughly $6 million per coin within 15 years.