Bitcoin in late bear-market phase, says Real Vision analyst

Jamie Coutts, Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst, believes Bitcoin is entering the late stages of a bear market. BTC trades near $63,000, roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak of $126,100. Volatility is about half of the previous cycle and the price has risen roughly 4.45% over the past 30 days.

Coutts described the current price action as a “typical garden-variety bear market” and said short-term trend indicators remain bearish. On longer time frames he identified a bullish divergence in momentum, which indicates negative momentum is slowing but does not confirm a market bottom.

He pointed to weaker onchain demand as a contributor to the sell-off, alongside tighter global liquidity and other macroeconomic pressures. Coutts argued lower onchain activity helped amplify the downturn beyond macro factors.

On forecasts, Coutts expressed skepticism that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030. He noted models he worked on reached $1 million by 2032–33 only under assumptions of continued heavy money printing. For the next two to three years he gave a target range of $200,000 to $250,000.

Coutts raised two longer-term structural concerns. He questioned how AI-driven agents and machine-controlled wallets might change demand if autonomous systems begin storing value. He also warned that quantum computing poses a security risk and urged developers to begin work well before 2027, saying a major protocol upgrade on a decentralized network could take about five years to implement.

As Coutts put it: “If there isn’t really firm movement on this, this will become an increasingly talked-about issue for the network.” He added developers who dismiss the quantum threat are “on the wrong side of this” and called for proactive discussion of potential upgrades. Coutts noted technical signs of slowing selling pressure have appeared while markets remain sensitive to both macroeconomic conditions and network risks.