Bitcoin Gains About 3% as Stocks Shrug Off U.S.-Iran Tensions

Bitcoin rose about 3% on Monday after the Wall Street open, with TradingView showing BTC/USD up roughly 2.5% on the day after closing last week below $74,000.

U.S. stock indexes logged modest losses at the start of the week. Oil prices pulled back after an initial spike that had pushed U.S. crude close to $90 a barrel following Iran’s announcement that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, “My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations,” and called Iran’s announcement “strange.”

QCP Capital wrote that market volatility has remained low and investors appear to be pricing in episodic flare-ups around the Strait of Hormuz with cycles of rhetoric and de-escalation. The firm added that the base case remains range-bound volatility across major assets.

J. A. Maartunn of onchain analytics provider CryptoQuant wrote on X that short-term buying by strategy allocations and speculative flows pushed recent local highs, while sellers took profits and capped price moves below key resistance. He noted the estimated cost basis for short-term holders is near $83,000.

Maartunn also wrote that long-term holders continue to accumulate and questioned whether current flows are enough to send Bitcoin into a sustained uptrend, adding that the pattern looks like a bear-market rally unless a clear breakout occurs.

Trading data showed investors avoiding large directional bets despite the headline risk. QCP pointed to a gap between realized price movement and option-implied pricing and said traders are favoring a view of protracted but contained disruption.

In energy markets, WTI futures initially jumped on concerns about the shipping lane before easing as traders reassessed the situation and potential diplomatic responses. Equities recorded only modest declines, reflecting limited market volatility after the weekend’s events.

Onchain measures show long-term holders adding to positions while short-term traders and strategy allocations have driven recent swings. Short-term price pressure and technical resistance near short-term holders’ cost bases have affected intraday moves.