Bitcoin price bottom still unclear as sentiment lacks full capitulation

According to data from Santiment, overall crypto market sentiment has intensified toward fear, but the level of fear expressed on social platforms and through sentiment metrics is not at the extremes that historical bottoms have often displayed, indicating that Bitcoin may not have fully stabilized after recent declines.

Maksim Balashevich, founder of Santiment, said the current sentiment profile – including social media commentary and aggregated fear gauges – reflects continued optimism among segments of traders that prices will rebound soon, rather than broad-based pessimism. He suggested that more pronounced fear among market participants is often present near major price lows. 

Data shows the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has lingered in the lower “Extreme Fear” ranges in recent sessions, a reading that indicates heightened caution but not necessarily the depth of panic that has coincided with previous price troughs. Santiment’s internal sentiment analysis and social engagement patterns do not yet show the range of distressed positioning that analysts typically associate with a durable bottom.

Market price levels have reflected this mixed psychology. Bitcoin has traded near the $88,000 range in recent sessions, while sentiment measures suggest traders are not fully discounted for additional declines. Balashevich noted that the perception of a potential rebound – including discussions around macro developments such as central bank interest-rate expectations – has tempered outright fear narratives among market participants.

In Santiment’s view, sentiment indicators such as social media commentary and fear gauges are often used by technical and behavioral analysts as contrarian signals: extreme pessimism can sometimes emerge near local lows when most participants have capitulated. At the moment, Santiment’s data suggests the fear present in the market has not yet crossed that threshold.

Additional data also shows bearish sentiment emerging across social channels, although historical patterns imply such spikes do not always coincide with immediate price bottoms and can occur before further declines. The divergence between sentiment and price performance has drawn attention from analysts assessing the health of recent price action.

Crypto sentiment measures like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index combine data from social media, volatility, trading volume and surveys to gauge collective investor mood. Behavioral analysts often interpret extreme fear as a potential contrarian indicator, while extreme greed can signal overconfidence. These tools are frequently integrated with technical and on-chain indicators to provide context for potential price inflection points.