Bitcoin Eyes $100K as Markets and Bernstein Diverge

Prediction-market traders have placed nearly $60 million on bitcoin price levels stretching to $150,000, while Bernstein projects six-figure prices by the end of this year and into 2027.

Most of the betting is on Polymarket, where about $59.7 million has traded on contracts asking which price bitcoin will touch before the end of 2026. With bitcoin recently trading above $75,000, Polymarket prices imply a 69% chance of hitting $85,000 and a 49% chance of touching $90,000. The implied probabilities fall as targets rise: $100,000 at 29%, $110,000 at 20%, $120,000 at 13% and $150,000 at 4%. Larger targets such as $250,000, $500,000 and $1 million show single-digit probabilities. These contracts settle when a price threshold is first reached; trade prices move as bettors add or withdraw funds.

Polymarket markets also show demand for downside protection. Traders assign a 67% probability that bitcoin will hit $70,000 before year-end, 44% for $65,000, 29% for $60,000, 17% for $50,000 and 8% for $40,000. A separate Polymarket event on when bitcoin will reach $100,000 prices the odds at 34% by Dec. 31, 2026; 48% by March 31, 2027; 60% by June 30, 2027; and 81% by the end of 2027. That specific market has traded roughly $11,900, making it thinner than the main price-target pool.

Kalshi markets show similar patterns around a $100,000 trigger. Kalshi’s $100,000 market has recorded about $11.5 million in volume, with probabilities of roughly 7% before October, 22% before December and 29% before January 2027. A Kalshi contract that asks whether bitcoin will fall to $50,000 before reaching $100,000 currently prices the $50,000-first outcome near 21%. A separate Kalshi market on $150,000 has attracted more than $36 million in volume but places only a 6% chance on reaching that level before January 2027.

Bernstein’s research note projects a different path. Lead analyst Gautam Chhugani forecasts bitcoin near $125,000 by year-end and $150,000 by mid-2027, and the firm’s base case extends to a cycle peak around $300,000 by the end of 2029. Bernstein cites rising institutional ownership, anticipated demand for exchange-traded funds, bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins and fiscal pressures on governments as factors behind its longer-term estimates.

Prediction markets price specific near-term outcomes based on traded money, while Bernstein’s note presents longer-range forecasts built on institutional demand assumptions and macro scenarios.