Bitcoin may be missing its usual January bid, analysts warn

Bitcoin entered mid-January with improving risk appetite on crypto social feeds while spot positioning from smaller traders remains measured, a combination analysts view as constructive for further upside if momentum firms. Santiment’s Brian Quinlivan said social chatter turned “very positive” to start 2026 but cautioned that a swift push toward the low-$90,000s would test whether retail crowds chase strength – a behavior that has often preceded short-term pullbacks.

Market mood indicators present a split screen. On one side, social data skews optimistic coming out of the holidays, a backdrop that tends to precede higher participation when prices break key round numbers. On the other, watchers emphasize that healthier advances usually form when smaller accounts buy dips rather than pile into fast rallies, keeping “dry powder” for confirmation moves. Quinlivan characterized near-term “euphoric buying” by retail as a risk to durability, framing early-January trading as a balance between improving sentiment and discipline around entries.

Seasonality is the second leg of the case. While the magnitude varies year to year, aggregated return tables and macro overlays used by traders highlight that early-year months have historically offered a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin, particularly when broader liquidity conditions are stable. Tools widely followed by crypto desks, such as CoinGlass’s macro dashboards, are used to contextualize trend strength against the rate backdrop and prior new-year cycles, helping traders judge whether current pricing fully reflects typical January resilience.

The near-term trigger to validate or challenge the thesis is path dependence around round-number levels. Analysts watching flows say a decisive, high-volume break into the low-$90,000s would likely be the first serious “stress test” of retail behavior in 2026. If smaller accounts stay selective – adding on weakness and fading spikes – market structure historically supports follow-through; if they rush in on momentum, tacticians warn of sharper mean reversion before trends reassert.

Social-sentiment divergences frequently appear around calendar inflection points, and the opening weeks of a year often deliver mixed signals as liquidity normalizes. Over the past year, episodes of retail euphoria tended to coincide with local highs, whereas stretches of cooler positioning aligned with more durable advances – an asymmetry that informs the “underpricing January” view now circulating among market analysts.

If seasonality and sentiment continue to improve while retail remains restrained on short, momentum-driven bursts, proponents argue the market may still be pricing January with too much caution – leaving room for upside as participation broadens.