Bitcoin dips as Fed meeting, Clarity Act and forks converge

Bitcoin traded at $64,466 on July 26 after failing to hold gains above a $66,910 high reached on July 21. The price drop followed a week of volatile trading and coincided with large ETF flows and a string of events that market participants are watching for the end of the month.

Bitcoin rose from about $57,700 in June to roughly $64,700 on July 19, peaked at $66,910 on July 21 and then gave back most of that advance, trading in the low $64,000s by July 25. Market capitalization remained near $1.28 trillion to $1.3 trillion for much of the week, leaving the weekly net change close to flat on some measures.

Daily activity showed swings across the week. Bitcoin opened near $64,800 on July 19, moved to $65,735 on July 20 before a pullback, and recorded its strongest single-day gain on July 21. The market then closed lower for three straight sessions, with July 22, July 23 and July 24 each finishing below the prior day.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows above $900 million over six to seven sessions through midweek, led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, reversing more than $4 billion of outflows that occurred in June. On July 23 funds reported roughly $225 million in net outflows, driven largely by redemptions from IBIT. Several major exchanges registered large bitcoin withdrawals during the week, a pattern consistent with coins moving into cold storage.

The Federal Reserve’s benchmark federal funds rate has been held at 3.50% to 3.75%. Futures priced modest odds of a rate hike for the July 28–29 meeting. Softer inflation data for June and weak June nonfarm payrolls contributed to expectations of a pause. At the same time, Brent crude traded near $90–$100 a barrel and major technology companies maintained elevated spending on artificial intelligence projects; those conditions were cited alongside rising real yields and a firm dollar as factors that affect risk assets.

Technical indicators showed support forming between $63,800 and $64,200, with a deeper floor around $61,800 to $63,100 where on-chain data indicated heavy trading. The June low near $57,800 to $58,700 remained the key downside support. Recent rallies stalled in the $65,500 to $66,000 area, with a larger test noted at $67,200 to $68,000. Daily relative strength was near 49 on July 26, and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages remained above the spot price in many timeframes.

Options positioning and leverage clustered around $65,000 to $70,000 strikes ahead of month-end expiries and the Fed decision. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has passed the House and cleared the Senate Banking Committee; a floor vote before Congress departs on August 7 remained uncertain. The Fed meeting, the Clarity Act timeline and the possibility of two bitcoin forks clustered at month end.