Bitcoin Closes Above 50-Week Moving Average at $81K

Bitcoin closed the week at $81,159 on Coinbase, finishing above its 50-week moving average of $78,788 for the first time in more than 10 months, according to TradingView. The weekly close was Bitcoin’s strongest in four months.

Traders monitor the 50-week moving average as a long-term trend indicator. TradingView shows the last weekly close above the line was Nov. 9, 2025.

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Research, wrote in a research note that in four of five completed bear markets the first break above the 50-week moving average coincided with the market low. “Essentially, retaking the 50w MA has previously confirmed the end of a bear market,” he wrote.

Galaxy’s team also cautioned the signal is not infallible: of 13 weekly crossings back above the 50-week average, two were followed by a lower low during the 2021–2022 downturn.

Ben Simpson, founder of Collective Shift, wrote before the weekly close that a finish above the 50-week line would be “the last thing I need to see before I call this a bull market.” He noted that Bitcoin rose roughly 700% to 900% after breaking the level in 2017, 2020 and 2023.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, described the close as adding weight to the view that recovery was underway but warned one weekly finish does not confirm a market low. “What matters now is whether Bitcoin can stay above the 50-week average and continue forming higher lows,” Lee noted, and he pointed to prior failed reclaims when macro conditions remained difficult.

Lee highlighted changes in market structure since mid-year: Bitcoin recovered from July lows near $57,000, repeated liquidations reduced leverage in derivatives markets, and there are signs of renewed institutional demand.

Trader Craig Cobb applies different technical tests. He identifies $83,000 as a key level that would remove a lower high on the monthly chart and follows a three-month candle pattern. Under his setup, a sequence of red quarterly candles ending with a green candle followed by a subsequent candle breaking above that green candle’s high would be a confirming signal. Cobb said the red-to-green quarterly transition has occurred 15 times in Bitcoin’s history; in 11 instances the high of the first green candle was later broken and each of those moves reached a new all-time high.

Analysts view confirmation as dependent on whether Bitcoin holds above the 50-week moving average and builds higher support in the weeks ahead.