Bitcoin Closes Above 21-Week EMA, Eyes $80K

Bitcoin closed the week above its 21-week exponential moving average for the first time since October 2025 and moved toward $80,000. Traders monitored concentrated liquidity that could trigger a support retest nearer $70,000. The 20-week simple moving average sat near $76,550.

The 21-week EMA acted as resistance since October 2025. The last weekly close above that line occurred when prices traded near $115,000. The EMA currently forms the upper boundary of Bitcoin’s bull market support band alongside the 20-week SMA.

On short time frames, traders reported heightened volatility as the market hunted liquidity. After the weekly close, short positions above roughly $79,000 were removed and the price then fell, liquidating newly opened long positions. Trader CrypNuevo wrote on social media that upside liquidations around $80,000 could be followed by moves toward the lower end of the $70,000–$80,000 range and that both $70,000 and $80,000 held “an interesting amount” of liquidation potential.

Analysts presented differing scenarios. Michaël van de Poppe wrote that a clear break above about $79,000 would open a path to $100,000 but that such a run would require time; he added he preferred to see roughly $73,500 hold as support. Analyst Rekt Capital wrote that a weekly close above the 21-week EMA was necessary to avoid a retest near $73,000 and warned that failure to reclaim the EMA could lead to a pullback to the top of a recently broken double-bottom.

U.S. macro events scheduled this week could affect risk assets. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press briefing. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is due the next day. Market participants noted this is Powell’s final FOMC meeting as chair.

Diplomatic developments tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict coincided with a brief rally to multimonth highs, followed by a rapid pullback. Analysts flagged that any escalation or renewed uncertainty could reverse short-term gains.

Onchain analytics contributors wrote that institutional holders largely refrained from selling during the so-called Hormuz Shock and that weaker retail positions were purged earlier in the year. The contributors identified February 5, 2026 as a peak of that purge, noting a spot squeeze near $62,800 and a realized price around $55,300.

U.S. purchasing managers’ index data moving into expansion for the first time since 2022 has been cited as a macro factor that could influence price patterns. Market commentator Matthew Hyland wrote that PMI strength and other indicators make a deep new low less likely and that Bitcoin could form a higher low later in the year, while adding that only a severe black swan would invalidate that view.

Short-term price action will hinge on behavior around roughly $79,000 and $73,000, intraday liquidity dynamics and incoming U.S. macro releases. Traders and analysts will watch whether the 21-week EMA flips to support and whether institutional demand continues to provide buying interest.