Bitcoin Posts Best Q3 Since 2021 — Rally Up About 11%

Bitcoin has risen nearly 11% so far in the third quarter, the strongest Q3 performance since 2021, according to industry return data.

The gain follows a steep spring sell-off. In that stretch the price dropped more than 19% in a single week and over 26% across 30 days. At the low point the market traded roughly 50% below its October 2025 cycle high of $126,209, and a majority of circulating bitcoin was below investors’ purchase prices.

Most of the quarterly increase occurred in July, when bitcoin advanced about 9.8%, its best 30-day performance in roughly a year. Market activity in July was driven mainly by spot and derivatives trading rather than a fresh wave of large allocations into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

At the start of August bitcoin traded near $64,040 and has found support around $64,500, trading above $65,000 since last week. A price near $63,500 places many miners close to their production cost; historically those break-even levels have reduced forced selling from unprofitable operations while also capping upside until new buying appears.

Seasonal patterns provide additional context. Since 2013 August has been one of bitcoin’s weaker months, showing an average return near 1.12% and a median return around -7.49%. Only Augusts in 2013 and 2021 produced large gains. Some analysts have warned a pullback to the $55,000–$60,000 range is possible if valuation metrics such as the MVRV Z-score move further into negative territory and macroeconomic stress rises.

Despite the quarter-to-date rebound, bitcoin remains roughly 50% below its October 2025 cycle high of $126,209, reflecting the depth of earlier losses.