Bernstein Cuts IREN Target as Firm Shifts From Bitcoin to AI

On Monday Bernstein cut IREN’s price target to $100 from $125 and kept an Outperform rating. The firm said the reduction reflected a planned wind-down of the company’s Bitcoin mining operations and an increase in shares outstanding from recent equity issuances.

IREN has a five-year agreement to provide Microsoft with 77,000 of its current 150,000 GPUs, a deal Bernstein estimated at about $1.94 billion in annualized revenue. The company is marketing the remaining GPU capacity to on-demand cloud customers and reported roughly $400 million in signed contracts for that capacity as of February.

To fund the buildout, IREN agreed to a $5.8 billion purchase program with Dell for Nvidia GB300 processors and obtained $3.6 billion in GPU-backed financing at an interest rate below 6 percent. Bernstein said those arrangements, combined with prepayments from Microsoft, cover about 95 percent of the capital needed to meet the Microsoft contract.

IREN holds about 4.5 gigawatts of power capacity across sites in Texas, British Columbia and Oklahoma. Bernstein valued 3.6 gigawatts of undeveloped capacity in Sweetwater and Oklahoma at $3 million per megawatt, adding roughly $10.8 billion in its sum-of-the-parts calculation.

Bernstein’s financial model projects AI cloud revenue rising to $2.6 billion in 2027 and $6 billion by 2030. The firm expects IREN to operate about 275,000 GPUs by 2030, up from 150,000 today, and forecasts adjusted EBITDA margins near 82 percent at that scale, implying nearly $5 billion in EBITDA by the end of the decade.

In its updated model Bernstein assigned no value to IREN’s remaining Bitcoin mining business and projected mining revenue would fall to zero by fiscal 2030 as the company replaces mining hardware with GPU racks.

IREN shares traded at $43.78 on the day Bernstein’s note was released, down more than 9 percent that session and up about 25 percent over the prior month. At that price, Bernstein’s $100 target implies roughly 128 percent upside. The firm continues to list IREN as its top pick among companies shifting from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud services.