Ben Cowen doubts Ethereum will set a new high in 2026

While appearing on the Bankless podcast, Cowen (best known for Into The Cryptoverse) tied Ethereum’s outlook to something far less glamorous than roadmap updates or the latest ecosystem headlines: Bitcoin’s price trend. If BTC has already slipped into a bear phase, Cowen argues, it’s hard to see ETH dragging the market to new records on its own. And even if Ether does push higher, he thinks the move could be the kind that leaves late buyers holding the bag.

His rough scenario is straightforward. Ethereum can grind back toward its prior peak zone, but instead of kicking off a clean “new cycle,” it could produce a brief spike that quickly fades. In that version of the story, price snaps back toward $2,000. Cowen describes that setup as a bull trap, a move that looks like a breakout until it suddenly isn’t.

That framing feels less abstract if you look at how ETH behaved in 2025. In August, Ether briefly flirted with the neighborhood of its 2021 all-time high (around $4,878) and, depending on the data source, even printed a marginal new peak. The momentum didn’t last. The trend rolled over, and by November ETH had slid noticeably lower.

At the same time, the long-term narratives haven’t disappeared. In mid-2025, the market spent weeks talking about rising institutional interest in ETH, from ETFs to companies experimenting with a Bitcoin-style corporate reserve playbook built around ether. But the last stretch of the year has been a reminder that “big money” demand can be jumpy too. Ahead of the Christmas holidays, spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs posted net outflows, and liquidity often gets thinner as desks slow down.

On the tech side, Ethereum hasn’t been standing still. In 2025, the network activated the Pectra upgrade, and in December it pushed through another major Fusaka hard fork. Cowen’s point, though, is simple: upgrades can make the platform sturdier and more usable, but they don’t guarantee a straight line up on the chart.

Overall, his take is cautious rather than apocalyptic. Cowen doesn’t rule out ETH reclaiming $5,000 and beyond. He just doubts that 2026 is the year it happens in a sustained way, especially if Bitcoin keeps trading like a risk asset with a limited appetite for upside.