Average spot Bitcoin ETF buyer slips underwater after $2.8B outflow streak

Bitcoin started the week under pressure after a sharp weekend slide pushed it down to around $74,600, a nine-month low. The drawdown has also reshaped how US spot Bitcoin ETF holders look on paper.

Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn said Bitcoin is now trading below the average cost basis for US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which means the typical ETF purchase is underwater. Thorn pointed to two consecutive heavy redemption weeks, described as the second- and third-largest weekly outflows for the group last month.

Coinglass data puts total spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management at roughly $113 billion. BiTBO estimates the funds collectively hold about 1.28 million BTC. Taken together, that implies an average ETF cost basis of around $87,830 per Bitcoin, above the levels seen during the early-Monday dip. 

The flow picture has been the main driver of the shift. The 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $2.8 billion in net outflows over the past two weeks, including $1.49 billion last week and $1.32 billion the week before, according to Coinglas.

Even with the pullback, Thorn argued large holders have not rushed for the exits. He noted ETF assets are down 31.5% from an October peak near $165 billion, and Bitcoin is down about 40% over the same window. Cumulative ETF inflows, however, are only about 12% below their peak, which suggests much of the change has come from mark-to-market losses rather than broad liquidation.

LVRG Research director Nick Ruck said demand will be the key variable in what comes next. He warned that Bitcoin could slide into a deeper bear phase if buying interest does not return, pointing to macro uncertainty, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and investor de-risking as pressure points.

For traders, the near-term read will stay simple: ETF flows, liquidity conditions, and whether Bitcoin can stabilize above recent lows without another wave of redemptions.