Arthur Hayes says dollar liquidity will kick-start Bitcoin again

In his Medium essay, Hayes writes that when investors’ attention is locked on gold and the Nasdaq, Bitcoin needs a fresh wave of dollars in the financial system to become a market favorite again. And, in his view, the setup for that could take shape in 2026. Among the potential triggers he lists are an expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, easier financial conditions overall, lower mortgage rates, and more aggressive lending from commercial banks — especially in areas where government support helps businesses.

He also notes that in 2025, some capital kept flowing into the tech sector. Hayes attributes that to the fact that AI has become a strategic priority in both the U.S. and China. In that kind of environment, the market doesn’t run strictly on the usual rules of returns. Money can move into AI largely because it’s “the trend,” not because the numbers have been carefully weighed.

When it comes to Bitcoin, Hayes sticks with his familiar framework: BTC is a “monetary technology” whose price is directly tied to how quickly fiat money loses purchasing power. Put simply, if the printing press ramps up again, Bitcoin could have a real shot at setting new all-time highs.

If the 2025 price action of Bitcoin, gold, and stonks validated my market schema, then I can continue focusing on the vicissitudes of dollar liquidity. To remind readers, my prognosis is that Trump will pump credit to run the economy fucking hot. A rip-roaring economy helps the re-election chances for Team Red Republicans this November. Dollar credit will expand as the central bank balance sheet grows, commercial banks lend more to “strategic industries”, and mortgage rates decline because of printed money,

- writes Hayes.

If you look at 2026 through that lens, the main question becomes: when will liquidity start expanding again? By late 2025, markets were already pricing in a softer rate path and a reshuffling of currency and debt expectations. In periods like that, Bitcoin often behaves like an asset that’s among the first to “absorb” renewed optimism about easier conditions.

In the end, Hayes’s point boils down to one idea: if 2026 turns into a year of expanding liquidity, BTC can pull attention back from gold and the tech sector.