Analysts: Bitcoin may drop to $50,000 in ‘final flush’

Analysts including Ivan Liljeqvist and Merlijn Enkelaar warned Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 in a so‑called “final flush” before a sustained recovery, arguing recent rebounds are small compared with the broader downtrend.

Liljeqvist, a trader and author, wrote on X that he does not believe $60,000 was the bottom and that the “trend is still down.” He added the recent bounces are “tiny” relative to Bitcoin’s wider trajectory.

Enkelaar wrote the market is entering a second bear phase after accumulation and that a “manipulation phase” could push Bitcoin to $50,000 before a third distribution phase begins.

Nick Ruck of LVRG Research described the $50,000 area as the last significant accumulation zone before any sustained recovery. He added such a drop would represent a cycle reset amid current macro pressure and weak capital rotation, and that greater institutional participation provides steady buying pressure at current levels.

Chart-based analysts also flagged further downside. A pseudonymous analyst, symbiote, wrote Bitcoin looks “super bearish” on higher time frames and is “waiting for a final huge dump” to $59,000 or $50,000. Another analyst, Jelle, identified a bearish flag pattern he said remains in play.

Traders watched prices after a recent rally pushed Bitcoin to just below $75,000 on renewed hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which eased geopolitical risk and prompted short covering. The advance hit resistance and the market remained rangebound.

Historical context shows large drawdowns in prior cycles: about 82% after the 2017 peak and roughly 77% after the 2021 high. Bitcoin is currently down about 40% from its most recent all-time high. Fidelity Digital Assets has noted downside risk in 2026 has been less dramatic than in past cycles.

Market participants noted timing and depth of any final decline are uncertain. Observations of order flow and institutional demand point to steady buying by large investors that may limit the size of a drop, while technical and on-chain analysts continue to flag the possibility of further deterioration before a clear and sustained recovery.