Analyst: Bitcoin could drop to $23,980 if stocks crash
Technical analyst Jesse Olson warned Bitcoin could fall to $23,980 in 2026 if the U.S. stock market plunges more than 50%, a decline of about 60% from recent levels.
Technical analyst Jesse Olson warned Bitcoin could fall to $23,980 in 2026 if the U.S. stock market falls by more than 50%. Olson presented the level as a worst-case support target and said it represents a decline of roughly 60% from recent prices.
Olson published a two-week Bitcoin chart using his Market Sniper Pro VWAP tool. He anchored a volume-weighted average price line from Bitcoin’s 2022 bear-market low; the line projects forward as a potential long-term support zone.
The $23,980 figure reflects Olson’s estimate of where Bitcoin could trade in a severe macro sell-off driven by a dramatic drop in equities.
Indicators point to weaker institutional demand for Bitcoin in 2026. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price gap between Coinbase and Binance, has been largely negative so far this year, indicating reduced buying pressure on U.S. platforms. U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $4.68 billion in net outflows since May, according to SoSoValue.
An on-chain analyst using the name Darkfost wrote: ‘These investors don’t act like retail. They operate under permanent risk management logic, they’re not looking to buy a potential bottom, they’re looking for confirmation, for performance.’
Other market participants have expressed concern about equity valuations and recession risk. Jeremy Grantham described the AI-driven rally as a speculative bubble. Michael Burry compared parts of the current market to the late-stage dot-com era. Economist Gary Shilling called a U.S. recession ‘almost inevitable’ by year-end and suggested stocks could fall 20%–30% in that scenario.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital and some traders have previously projected Bitcoin could fall below $30,000 if a major stock-market correction occurs.
Olson described his projection as conditional on an extreme macro outcome rather than a forecast for normal conditions. Market observers are tracking liquidity, ETF flows and institutional buying signals for evidence of renewed demand or further de-risking.
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