Analyst: 75% Chance Crypto Cycle Has Reversed

A crypto analyst assigned a 75% probability that the market cycle has reversed after Bitcoin’s recent sharp pullback, saying the assessment follows a range of technical and on-chain signals that emerged during the slide.

The view was formed after Bitcoin fell from recent highs, triggering a broad sell-off across major tokens and elevated liquidation activity in futures markets. The probability reflects a mix of price action, momentum measures and market breadth, the analyst wrote.

The analyst listed specific signals that informed the probability. Price broke multiple support levels used by traders to define the bull market structure. Momentum indicators that had been positive turned negative. Trading volume did not support a rapid rebound. On-chain measures cited included declining inflows to exchanges and fewer active addresses. In derivatives markets, open interest shifted to the downside and forced liquidations increased during the sell-off.

Market reaction tracked Bitcoin lower. Major altcoins fell in step with the decline and more speculative tokens posted larger percentage drops. Stablecoin supply on exchanges remained higher than in recent weeks, which the analyst said can limit upward price pressure. Several crypto funds and trading desks reported they reduced leverage and tightened position sizes amid the volatility.

In the note, the analyst wrote: “I assign a 75% probability that the cycle has reversed based on the breakdown of structural supports and multiple confirming on-chain signals. While short-term bounces are possible, the odds favor a protracted period of consolidation or decline until key market internals improve.” The analyst also cautioned the probability is not a certainty and that the outlook could change.

The report listed potential catalysts that could alter the assessment, including significant capital inflows, shifts in macroeconomic data that affect risk appetite, or a rapid rise in on-chain activity. Historical examples were cited showing that past reversals followed sharp gains and sudden changes in momentum and derivative funding conditions.

The analyst’s note adds to a range of views among market participants. Some traders described the moves as a retracement within an ongoing uptrend, while others pointed to the same indicators highlighted in the report as signs the market may be entering a different phase. Attention now centers on price action around established support levels, macroeconomic signals that influence risk appetite, and on-chain metrics that measure transaction activity and investor flows.