99.99% of Polymarket traders cannot replace salaries: analysis

An analysis of Polymarket activity between April 2024 and April 1, 2026 found that 0.015% of traders recorded at least $5,000 in realized profits each month for four consecutive months. The dataset and calculations were compiled by crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov.

Sergeenkov’s breakdown shows that nearly 1% of traders earned more than $5,000 in a single month, 0.1% repeated that performance the following month, and 0.015% maintained it for four months in a row.

The analysis also identified about 840 wallet addresses, roughly 0.033% of traders, with more than $100,000 in cumulative profits. Sergeenkov noted some of those wallets are likely operated by professional trading firms or hedge funds rather than individual retail users.

Polymarket is a prediction market where users buy and sell binary “yes” or “no” contracts priced between $0 and $1 to reflect the market probability of an event. Traders realize profits by selling contracts at higher prices or by holding contracts that settle at $1 when an outcome occurs. If you are wondering is Polymarket legit, check out our review of its credibility and standing.

Sergeenkov’s methods counted only realized profits and losses. He reported that about 96% of Polymarket trading volume in the sample came from markets that had already resolved. The dataset covers activity from April 2024 through April 1, 2026.

On trader activity, the analyst reported that only 172 of 6,600 wallet addresses with average monthly profits above $5,000 remained active for more than a year, a share he presented as 2.6%. Sergeenkov wrote, “Less experienced users tend to trade less successfully.” He added, “Most traders show up, trade for a short period, and leave.”

The findings were published alongside public posts and profiles that promoted large gains, including one account reporting $100,000 in profit in a single month and another claiming easy six-figure opportunities on prediction markets. Sergeenkov’s dataset reports the counts of high-profit wallets and the low rates of sustained monthly returns. Occasional large, one-off windfalls can occur, but they are rare and unpredictable. The analysis did not find that such events were common enough to raise the share of accounts above the income-replacement threshold.

The report framed prediction markets primarily as venues for information aggregation and speculation. While some traders extracted profits from inefficiencies in specific markets, the distribution of capital and the platform’s transaction structure limited the number of accounts that reached income-replacement levels.