2024 Bitcoin Cycle Dramatically Underperforming, Analyst Says

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, posted on X that the market cycle beginning with the April 2024 halving is “dramatically underperforming” the 2012, 2016 and 2020 cycles, with lower volatility and smaller price gains.

Thorn compared peak prices across cycles. Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025, roughly 97% above its price near $63,000 at the April 2024 halving. By comparison, Bitcoin rose about 9,294% in the 2012 cycle to roughly $1,163, about 2,950% in the 2016 cycle to about $19,891, and roughly 761% in the 2020 cycle.

Thorn pointed to reduced short-term price swings as a key difference. The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 9.64% on April 2, 2020. In the current cycle that gauge has not exceeded 3.11% and last topped that level on Aug. 24, 2024. Bitbo’s latest 30-day reading was about 1.75%.

Critics of the cycle comparison note a timing anomaly: Bitcoin climbed above $70,000 in March 2024, one month before the April halving. Market participants link that pre-halving peak to the January 2024 approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States, which increased demand and shifted the timing of the price peak.

Research from Fidelity Digital Assets shows earlier Bitcoin bear markets fell about 80% to 90%. The fall from the $125,000 high to roughly $60,000 was just over a 50% decline. In March, Jan van Eck, chief executive of VanEck, stated he expects Bitcoin to begin a gradual recovery in 2026.

At publication, Bitcoin traded near $74,703, up about 5% over the prior seven days. Thorn wrote on X, “Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” and added, “Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”