Forecast: US labor market to add 75K jobs in August
The US Labor Department will release the August jobs report on September 5 at 3:30 p.m. Kyiv time. The crypto market may react with volatility.
According to Reuters estimates, approximately 75K jobs were created in the US in August, similar to July’s figure of 73,000. Unemployment is forecast to rise to 4.3% from 4.2% in the previous month, while average hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.3% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year.
Historical Non-Farm Employment Change data and forecasts. Source: forexfactory.com
The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is one of the key indicators of the US economy. It directly influences Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates. Weak data reinforces expectations of a rate cut to support the economy, while strong data may delay policy easing.
For Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the NFP report carries as much as it does for traditional markets. If job growth falls short of forecasts, the dollar could weaken, boosting demand for alternative assets such as BTC and ETH. Conversely, stronger-than-expected numbers would support the dollar and could trigger a correction in crypto markets.
Investors are also monitoring wage dynamics: slowing income growth eases inflationary pressure and increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. That typically signals positively for risk assets, including crypto.
Possible scenarios:
- Weaker than forecast (below 75K): chances of a Fed rate cut in September rise, crypto prices may advance.
- In line with forecast (around 75K): markets likely view the data as neutral, with limited volatility.
- Stronger than forecast (above 100K): likelihood of near-term policy easing decreases, the dollar strengthens, crypto assets may decline.
Economists note that given current labor supply levels, the US needs just 50,000–75,000 new jobs per month to keep the labor market stable. Any deviation from this range will likely impact stock prices and other financial assets.
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