US jobless claims slip, labour market still lacks momentum
Economists at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs estimate that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to about 217,000 last week, from 235,000 a week earlier. Hiring remains weak, so the number of people still on benefits stays elevated.
Despite the ongoing federal shutdown, now in its third week and blocking regular statistical releases, states continue to compile administrative data on unemployment benefit applications.
Analysts rely on raw weekly figures from the open Labor Department database and adjust them using pre-published seasonal factors. Some states, including Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada and Tennessee, have reporting gaps, so banks rely on the most recent available data.
By JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs estimates, initial claims for the week ending 11 October were close to 217,000. Based on the range for the missing states, estimates span roughly 211,000 to 225,000. That level suggests no broad wave of layoffs, yet it also points to subdued hiring, in line with other indicators.
Trends in continued claims, the number of people who keep receiving benefits in a given week, tell a similar story. JPMorgan puts this figure near 1.93 million for the week to 4 October, Goldman Sachs puts it near 1.92 million. A persistently high level of continued claims signals a slower pace of re‑employment.
This backdrop may weigh on the Federal Reserve as it considers interest rates. Policymakers are monitoring labour signals ahead of the 28 and 29 October meeting, and recent remarks suggest both layoffs and hiring remain muted.
Additional colour comes from the Bank of America Institute. Its small business hiring indicator weakened in September, and applications to start new firms with planned payrolls fell below pre‑pandemic norms.
Overall, the picture looks steady but sluggish, with no mass layoffs and no strong hiring. That supports the view of a gradual cooling in the economy, without sharp shocks.
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