Strategy’s S&P 500 bid hinges on Q3 earnings

10X Research projects roughly a $3.8 billion gain tied to Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings for the quarter. A profitable result would support index eligibility criteria centered on sustained profitability, market capitalization and trading volume. 

Several companies with digital-asset treasuries saw their market net asset value (mNAV) ratios fall below 1, a level that typically blocks issuing new shares to acquire more crypto. Strategy’s mNAV compression has prompted questions about its capacity to continue expanding holdings. Investors will watch whether the results address capital-raising flexibility and whether improving trading conditions can support shares after the release.

The same analysis turned bearish on Strategy in May, highlighting that declining Bitcoin volatility and a normalization of the company’s NAV premium could pressure the stock from around $400 toward $330, and possibly $300. It also noted that access to equity and convertible funding tends to rely on higher volatility and stronger market sentiment, which weakened into the summer.

“Capitulation always feels like the end until it quietly marks the beginning,” 10X Research wrote, adding that “this is the point in the cycle where liquidity returns and outsized moves begin.”

As GNcrypto wrote previously, S&P Global Ratings assigned Strategy a B- long-term issuer credit rating with a stable outlook, describing it as a Bitcoin treasury company. 

The agency cited a narrow business model, weak risk-adjusted capital, limited dollar liquidity, and a currency mismatch between USD liabilities and BTC holdings. It noted reliance on equity and convertible issuance for funding and no maturities within 12 months; an upgrade would require stronger dollar liquidity and less dependence on converts.