U.S. shutdown halts job data – Chicago Fed charts unemployment
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago issued a "real-time" estimate placing September's unemployment rate at approximately 4.34%, as the U.S. government shutdown has suspended all Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases.
Chicago Fed's labor market model, which combines private sector indicators and historical data, projects the unemployment rate steady from August's 4.32%. The forecast shows a layoffs rate of 2.10% and a hiring rate for unemployed workers of 45.22%, both modest changes from the prior month.
The estimate carries weight given that the ongoing government shutdown has delayed the September jobs report, leaving private and regional estimates as main sources for interpreting labor market conditions.
Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams, drawing on sources including Revelio Labs, Challenger Gray & Christmas, and Cleveland Fed data, said the labor market is operating in a "low hire, low fire, low gear" mode. He noted holiday hiring plans are weak, which could affect year-end payroll growth.
The estimate carries weight given that the ongoing government shutdown has delayed the September jobs report, leaving private and regional estimates as main sources for interpreting labor market conditions.
Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams, drawing on sources including Revelio Labs, Challenger Gray & Christmas, and Cleveland Fed data, said the labor market is operating in a "low hire, low fire, low gear" mode. He noted holiday hiring plans are weak, which could affect year-end payroll growth.
Private indicators show mixed results. Revelio Labs estimates a gain of roughly 60,100 jobs in September, while ADP data suggests a loss of 32,000 in the private sector. Challenger Gray & Christmas reports that hiring intentions for the year remain at their lowest in over a decade.
The contrast between the Chicago Fed's forecast and sluggish signals from private sources highlights uncertainty facing economists and markets without official data. The Chicago Fed developed its measure to help fill gaps when BLS releases stall.
The government shutdown began on October 1, 2025, suspending the release of key economic data including employment reports, jobless claims, and inflation figures. The BLS has not indicated when it will resume publishing official statistics.
Observers will watch for the resumed BLS Employment Situation report and whether it aligns with the Chicago Fed's 4.34% forecast. Any significant deviation could prompt reassessment of labor trends and monetary policy expectations.
The Chicago Fed's model uses data from household surveys, unemployment insurance claims, and other labor market indicators to generate real-time estimates. The bank published its first such forecast in response to the data blackout created by the shutdown.
The contrast between the Chicago Fed's forecast and sluggish signals from private sources highlights uncertainty facing economists and markets without official data. The Chicago Fed developed its measure to help fill gaps when BLS releases stall.
The government shutdown began on October 1, 2025, suspending the release of key economic data including employment reports, jobless claims, and inflation figures. The BLS has not indicated when it will resume publishing official statistics.
Observers will watch for the resumed BLS Employment Situation report and whether it aligns with the Chicago Fed's 4.34% forecast. Any significant deviation could prompt reassessment of labor trends and monetary policy expectations.
The Chicago Fed's model uses data from household surveys, unemployment insurance claims, and other labor market indicators to generate real-time estimates. The bank published its first such forecast in response to the data blackout created by the shutdown.
Author
Sebile Fane cut her teeth in blockchain by building tiny NFT experiments with friends in her living room, long before the buzzwords took hold. She’s driven by a curiosity for the human stories behind smart contracts — whether it’s a small-town artist minting her first token or a DAO voting on climate grants — and weaves technical insight with genuine empathy.
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