Quantum Doom Clock sets March 8, 2028 risk date for Bitcoin keys
Analyst Charles Edwards is pointing to a risk date for Bitcoin: March 8, 2028, at 11:23 a.m.
A model known as the Quantum Doom Clock projects that by then, quantum processors could reach roughly 1,673 logical qubits – enough to run Shor’s algorithm against today’s public-key cryptography. If unaddressed, that would allow private keys to be derived from public addresses, exposing wallets on Bitcoin, Ethereum and other networks.
Quantum Doom Clock was built by cryptographer Richard Carback, cofounder of the xx network, and entrepreneur Colton Dillion. The data model extrapolates error rates, physical-to-logical qubit overhead and growth curves reported by leading hardware programs, including IBM and Google. It tracks the path from Google’s 53-qubit Sycamore processor in 2019 to an estimated 6,000-plus logical qubits by late 2027, assuming progress continues on current trajectories.
Edwards frames the date as a risk estimate – not an immediate‑failure prediction. The “doomsday” or “Q‑Day” scenario focuses on timing and depends on continued advances in qubit counts and error correction. The timeline serves as a marker for developers to migrate to quantum-resistant signature schemes. Elliptic curve and RSA systems make it straightforward to verify a signature yet infeasible for classical computers to compute a private key from a public key; a sufficiently powerful quantum machine running Shor’s algorithm could bypass that security.
As GNсrypto wrote previously, hardware wallet maker Trezor introduced the Safe 7 on Oct. 21, 2025, describing a "quantum-ready" design with an open, auditable secure element and a 2-inch touchscreen. The device supports multiple cryptocurrencies and works with Trezor Suite for staking and signing. Trezor indicated the architecture can support future post-quantum algorithms but did not set a timeline, and pre-orders opened on the company’s website.
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