Oil rises after OPEC group opts for smaller November hike

Crude prices rose about 1.5% after OPEC+ approved only a limited production rise for November. Brent pushed back above $65 a barrel and WTI neared $62 as traders unwound bets on a larger hike. The group kept the monthly adjustment at 137,000 bpd – the same as in October – easing fears of a supply flood.

Heading into the meeting, some desks had speculated about a much steeper increase to claw back market share. Instead, the alliance opted for continuity, choosing the same monthly pace, even as members talk up longer‑run growth in output. Crude had been hovering near three‑month lows on soft demand signals and U.S. inventory builds, while talk of tougher sanctions and China’s reserve buying helped limit the downside.

Reports suggested a split – Moscow favored a smaller step to defend prices, while Riyadh was open to a larger one to regain share – but the group stuck with the existing pace.

Analysts still see headwinds into year‑end. Demand typically cools in the fourth‑quarter shoulder season, and a ramp‑up in refinery maintenance reduces crude runs. Inventory data have been mixed, and major forecasters flag looser balances into 2026 as non‑OPEC supply grows. The bounce looks more like a position reset than the start of a sustained upswing.

Geopolitics adds noise but not yet a new direction. G7 officials have pledged tighter enforcement on buyers of Russian barrels and on intermediaries helping to skirt sanctions. Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including a major refinery, raise uncertainty around regional flows. At the same time, the broader balance still tilts toward more supply than demand over the medium term, which may cap rallies.

For crypto readers, the link is macro: energy prices feed into inflation and, by extension, rate expectations. Sharp oil moves can nudge CPI prints and central bank rhetoric, shifting risk appetite across assets. Mining costs hinge more on electricity than crude, but risk-on/off swings tied to energy often ripple through crypto markets.

From here, price action will hinge on whether OPEC+ actually delivers the planned barrels and what guidance it offers ahead of December. The degree to which the G7 tightens enforcement on Russian exports, together with any disruption to flows, could skew the supply picture. On the demand side, the pace of global refinery maintenance and early signs of stabilization in end‑use consumption will be key.