Mike Novogratz: U.S. policy could break Bitcoin’s four-year cycle
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, says the United States has reached a point where crypto regulation is shifting from rhetoric to reality. In a Bloomberg interview, he linked the change to two moves in Congress: a stablecoin bill signed in July (GENIUS Act) and the pending CLARITY Act.
Novogratz believes recent policy changes could bring in a broader set of participants, from major fintechs to everyday users, potentially breaking the rhythm traders have come to expect.
That cycle is typically tied to the BTC halving: optimism builds, prices spike, and profit-taking follows. With the latest halving in April 2024, many still expect the textbook pattern to culminate in a year-end rally.
Novogratz, however, sees the potential for a different outcome. With clearer rules and fresh use cases, investors may be less likely to take profits at the peak, allowing Bitcoin to extend its rally rather than slip into the usual post-peak slump.
He added that stablecoins’ previously uncertain legal status limited their use in payments and social platforms. With regulatory guardrails in place, those frictions recede, accelerating mainstream use.
Other industry voices echo the optimism. Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong recently CLARITY Act a “freight train” that will be hard to stop. The House committee overseeing the bill aims to bring it to a vote in the fall.
Politics still cuts both ways. Novogratz acknowledges potential pushback from Democrats, including conflict‑of‑interest concerns, but believes there are enough pro‑crypto voices to push reform through.
He also pointed to short-term market weakness (nearly $200 billion in total crypto market cap wiped out in a week) but linked it to miner sell-offs from China and negative sentiment around Hyperliquid.
Even so, he frames it as a correction on the road to a more mature market, where policy decisions, not just the halving, drive participation.
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